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Fantactic1316 [Posts: 75] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 02:45:54 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #40 on: April 30, 2012, 02:45:54 AM »
I don't like the thought of determining based on old tournaments. This is season one of something totally new- a clean slate. The only fair way is to generate a totally random bracket. Whoever gets byes- get byes, whoever doesn't- doesn't. Should this happen again in Season Two, we can use Season One's results to determine byes.

Sounds fair enough to me. Most of FFT is down to RNG anyway.

"D'you know in 900 years of time and space, I've never met anyone who wasn't important before."
-The Doctor-
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formerdeathcorps [Posts: 1307] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 02:47:09 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #41 on: April 30, 2012, 02:47:09 AM »
1) WE have no reasonable seeding system.  We can't use S5 because this is a different patch.  WE can't use the results of the last 2-3 months because players like me, CT5Holy, and Raven have been mostly inactive.  We can't always use the power behind someone's name because veterans sometimes make bad teams (see CT5Holy's and PX's teams from last year).  And unlike real life tournaments for money, the mystery factor of newcomers (like Gaignun in S5) is much greater because all the teams are completely unknown until the moment of release (meaning that you can't really base anything on a person's past performance).

2) You are right in saying that given a non-power of 2, seeding is a must.  However, seeding is only fair if you have information to base a team's seed on.  As Point #1 shows, the only good evidence we have is the performance in the actual tournament itself.  Thus, a semifinal round bye is probably the most accurate possible bye.  In my opinion, that counterbalances any problem of potentially affecting the match results.  Of course, if we do a round robin for the final 3 Winner's Bracket teams, we wouldn't need a bye.

3) Lastly, another basic principle of the loser's bracket is to have teams with identical match win/loss records face each other (for as long as this can be possibly maintained).  The 16+ loser's bracket bye fails this because you pair teams with a record of 0-1 with teams with a record of 1-1 in the first round of the loser's bracket.  Every year in the AI tournaments, there are always teams that contain basic errors.  Considering that Arena is more new to most people (mechanically) compared to both vanilla and 1.3, we'll likely see an accentuation of this effect.  This means instead of a normal distribution, we'll probably have a significant number of really bad teams from people who don't understand the mechanics (with power near 0%) paired with the majority of functional teams (with a normally distributed set of power averaging at around 65%).  This implies that it's probably not a good idea to group teams that are 0-1 with 1-1 simply for the sake of mathematical expediency.

Thus, I favor the addition of 1 dummy team to give us 48 teams (in which we can run the above system, but with a round robin for the three finalists in the Winner's Bracket).  For those of you who find dummy teams distasteful, realize that they have existed in every previous season.  Just in S5 alone, we had Squidgy make two teams, Mando make two teams, and someone submit Kagebunji's team for him.  Besides the obvious fun involved, it was also done to ensure we would have enough participants.

Proposed Rules of the Round Robin of 3:
If a team wins 2 matches, they will advance.
If each team wins 1 match each, the team with the best overall win/loss record in the round robin will advance.
If that too is a tie, we should judge how "close" a match was.  The fairest way I can think of is to create a point system where teams are rewarded for the number of units left alive at the end of any match during the round robin.  This is fair in that it rewards how efficiently a team can win, either by defensively outlasting someone or offensively overpowering them.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2012, 03:08:19 AM by formerdeathcorps »
The destruction of the will is the rape of the mind.
The dogmas of every era are nothing but the fantasies of those in power; their dreams are our waking nightmares.
Gaignun [Posts: 324] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 04:00:54 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2012, 04:00:54 AM »
1) WE have no reasonable seeding system.  We can't use S5 because this is a different patch.  WE can't use the results of the last 2-3 months because players like me, CT5Holy, and Raven have been mostly inactive.  We can't always use the power behind someone's name because veterans sometimes make bad teams (see CT5Holy's and PX's teams from last year).  And unlike real life tournaments for money, the mystery factor of newcomers (like yourself in S5) is much greater because all the teams are completely unknown until the moment of release (meaning that you can't really base anything on a person's past performance).

We can't seed at any time by that rationale.  Veterans can make bad teams, veterans can have bad days, rookies can turn out strong, and so on.  These are known as upsets, and they happen all the time.  Entrants of S5 didn't know the other teams when submitting their own, either.  This is part of the challenge: building a team that is strong on as many fronts as possible.  That we are using a different patch adds to this challenge.  You're saying that the S5 results are of no worth in judging an entrant's ability to rise up to it.  I think you need to give the past entrants more credit.  If I teach two people the game of Go, a chess grandmaster and a complete stranger, then pit the two against each other and bet on a victor, I'm going to put my money on the grandmaster.  It's her first game, but she has demonstrated her ability to play games out in her mind before making moves.  That she's applying a faculty developed in one game to a similar one strengthens my faith in her.  I could be completely wrong on my bet.  This stranger could be a savant, but as I have never seen him play, I have no reason to think he is.  I appeal to probability when placing my bet.  This is the seeding I'm arguing for.  Sure, there will be greater variability, but that is inevitable, as this is the first tournament of its kind.  Again, using the results of a different game to seed the present one can be no worse than seeding at random.

If this current tournament is about arm wrestling, then, yes, the results of S5 would be worthless in determining seeds, because arm wrestling and playing FFT have nothing in common.  Arena and 1.3, however, do.

Quote
3) Lastly, another basic principle of the loser's bracket is to have teams with identical match win/loss records face each other (for as long as this can be possibly maintained).  The 16+ loser's bracket bye fails this because you pair teams with a record of 0-1 with teams with a record of 1-1 in the first round of the loser's bracket.  Every year in the AI tournaments, there are always teams that contain basic errors.  Considering that Arena is more new to most people (mechanically) compared to both vanilla and 1.3, we'll likely see an accentuation of this effect.  This means instead of a normal distribution, we'll probably have a significant number of really bad teams from people who don't understand the mechanics (with power near 0%) paired with the majority of functional teams (with a normally distributed set of power averaging at around 65%).  This implies that it's probably not a good idea to group teams that are 0-1 with 1-1 simply for the sake of mathematical expediency.

All populations are normal distributions.  What changes is the variability, which I am not denying will be high.  If the majority of teams are ill-conceived, then the distribution's mean will simply be shifted to a lower value.

I'm not sure where you're going with the win/loss ratio argument, unfortunately, as the loser's bracket never guarantees that people with identical win-loss records are paired, even if there are no seeds.  The single difference with seeds is that this mismatch appears in the first set.  I don't see who this is unfair to.  If you are seeded and lose your first two matches, you were a bad seed.  This falls within the realm of prediction. 

Quote
Proposed Rules of the Round Robin of 3:
If a team wins 2 matches, they will advance.
If each team wins 1 match each, the team with the best overall win/loss record in the round robin will advance.
If that too is a tie, we should judge how "close" a match was.  The fairest way I is to create a point system where teams gain points by the difference for each unit they have alive at the end of any match during the round robin.  This is fair in that it rewards how efficiently a team can win, either by defensively outlasting someone or offensively overpowering them.

This possibility of having to arbitrate how close a match was is precisely why round robin isn't used in double-elimination format. 
:D
CT5Holy [Posts: 892] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 05:32:35 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #43 on: April 30, 2012, 05:32:35 AM »
There are currently 45 teams. Just throwing that out there. Some more teams might pop up in the next 8 hours. We'll see.

As for the current discussion, the only strong opinion I have is that we get this going relatively soon. In other words, let's not use Fanatic's idea of polling to see which teams are strong for seeds, because that will take forever, and at least for me, it's hard to see how strong a team will be on paper.

EDIT: 46 teams now.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2012, 06:21:20 AM by CT5Holy »
Winner of the 1st FFT 1.3 AI Tourney
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Eternal [Posts: 2547] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 05:34:03 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #44 on: April 30, 2012, 05:34:03 AM »
If you guys don't decide on something by the time all the teams are in, I'm going to use my super amazing uber admin powers to declare that the seeding will be random.

Here dying, join my legion of undeath. Your blood, the roses on unhallow'd graves!
The old (un)wise bastard
Dome [Posts: 4755] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 07:32:58 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #45 on: April 30, 2012, 07:32:58 AM »
MASTER SQUIRES TEAM TO FILL THE GAP!!!!!1

Friends are like boobs:
Some are big, some are small
Some are real, some are fake
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Fanatic [Posts: 56] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 03:50:30 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #46 on: April 30, 2012, 03:50:30 PM »
Like I said, I will support any solution that gets us playing. Even authoritarian decree. Damn I'm excited about this!

Final Fantasy Tactics Football Fracas [FFTFF] Link:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/197339-final-fantasy-tactics/57703092
:D
CT5Holy [Posts: 892] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 05:34:26 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #47 on: April 30, 2012, 05:34:26 PM »
Still only 46 teams. If we put in Raven's Y U SO DERP and Dol's RNG team, that's 48. Or we could keep waiting for more teams, or... any other ideas?

Winner of the 1st FFT 1.3 AI Tourney
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Barren [Posts: 1672] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 05:56:29 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2012, 05:56:29 PM »
Maybe if no one submits a late entry but tonight then I would say add Raven's team and Dol's random team to make 48

He who fears being conquered is sure of defeat
Fantactic1316 [Posts: 75] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 06:34:29 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2012, 06:34:29 PM »
To who's God must I pay tribute in order to avoid a potential match against Y U SO DERP?

"D'you know in 900 years of time and space, I've never met anyone who wasn't important before."
-The Doctor-
Once passed a bar
Fanatic [Posts: 56] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 06:43:37 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2012, 06:43:37 PM »
We of the Super Tactists believe that if you offer goats to the almighty RNG, she will bless you with many reaction triggers, status hits, and critical hits. I'm sure if you offer enough goats, she might even give you a favorable bracket.

Final Fantasy Tactics Football Fracas [FFTFF] Link:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/197339-final-fantasy-tactics/57703092
Fantactic1316 [Posts: 75] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 07:02:47 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2012, 07:02:47 PM »
I was gonna offer the Germonik Scriptures, Alma, All 13 Holy Stones, the dead body of Thunder God Cid, and Balmafula's tongue, but goats sounds a lot easier.

Now, where did I put my sacrificial dagger? ...

"D'you know in 900 years of time and space, I've never met anyone who wasn't important before."
-The Doctor-
dacheat [Posts: 98] Logged
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  • [April 30, 2012, 07:29:48 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2012, 07:29:48 PM »
Like I said, I will support any solution that gets us playing. Even authoritarian decree. Damn I'm excited about this!

Definitely this. I vote for whatever gets us playing the quickest.

Also, everyone knows that Ana from Fire Emblem is the RNG goddess.
jansported [Posts: 10] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 05:59:48 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #53 on: May 01, 2012, 05:59:48 AM »
I'm super late on this guys, sorry I haven't had much time to be around lately. Mass byes wth random seeding is a terrible idea (aka a 46 team bracket) however, I'm really concerned about "dummy teams."
If these teams are so bad they can't win then it's basically a bye, but if they're good enough to win and DO win wouldn't that cause a problem as well? :P Oh well, since this is season one it's not going to matter much what you do, but next season I definitely agree with seeding based on this season's results.
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Eternal [Posts: 2547] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 10:03:37 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #54 on: May 01, 2012, 10:03:37 AM »
So guys, thoughts on who'll win/get far? Remember that you can discuss the teams. :P

Here dying, join my legion of undeath. Your blood, the roses on unhallow'd graves!
jansported [Posts: 10] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 10:07:46 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #55 on: May 01, 2012, 10:07:46 AM »
I will win of course. Wogdog the tief is too buff.
Ryason55 [Posts: 14] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 10:34:48 AM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #56 on: May 01, 2012, 10:34:48 AM »
Let's see... vs Xeno... Well, guess I'll give my first impressions on the team before I go run several test matches to see if I'm actually screwed or not.

Cutthroat:
Looks to be set up to attempt to get more turns than the opponent to get off both a Greased Bolt and shot with the Blaze Gun. Speed-oriented equips, Speed Save, Quickening... yeah.
While that seems to be his intended function, he also has some standard Thiefing skills, which might turn his attention away from burning things. I guess he'll likely turn to those if he can't get kill shots.

Nix:
Compliments Cutthroat. Both Nameless Dance with Slow proc, and Last Dance with CT00 chance would give Cutthroat more turns to wreak havok on the enemy. Also some Monk skills to act as support, and if the enemies get too close.
Thing is though, I don't believe Last Dance will ever be used. It has a CT of 10; she'll likely get another turn before it goes off after starting it the previous turn, and would probably even cancel it with another thing. Also those Monk skills likely would distract her from dancing. Considering her main thing is keeping the heat on the entire enemy team; having her suddenly switch to reviving that one ally gives enemies a chance to recouperate.

Xin:
The White Mage. Also Holy.
Cutthroat would benefit greatly from getting hasted from Masamune on turn 1... however, he's faster than everyone else on the team, so he's way out of range by the time Xin gets her first turn.

Plato:
Stands in place and casts Thunder Flare until the end of time. Seeing as the entire team absorbs Lightning, she slightly heals allies and herself, while damaging enemies. Also Item skill so she can sustain herself while her allies are busy at the front line. I like how she doesn't have Soft, Maiden's Kiss, and Pheonix Down... for obvious reasons.
Now, thing about Thunder Flare and similar moves is that they don't do too great for damage... and can trigger reactions. Main offenders being Auto Potion and (I believe) HP Restore. So, dealing under 80 damage to an Auto Potion unit, or putting an HP Restore unit into critical... well, possible net gain for the target. Good for knocking out low-HP units though.



Anyways, off to do that testing to see whether or not I'm completely wrong in every regard or not... and also that one other thing about whether I'm screwed or not.
Oh, and good luck in our upcoming match, Xeno!
Xeno [Posts: 8] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 01:56:09 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #57 on: May 01, 2012, 01:56:09 PM »
I'm new so thanks for the break down, that put some things in perspective for me lol, and GG to you as well.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2012, 04:34:27 PM by Xeno »
Everyone is king, When there is no one left to pawn.(Vagrant Story=God Mode)
Fantactic1316 [Posts: 75] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 05:48:36 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #58 on: May 01, 2012, 05:48:36 PM »
Veterans right from the start. fattyzilla in the beginning and then, if I get to Round 2, Wiz. I remember fattyzilla's name from as far back as S2, so I'm concerned that their might be some design elements that I'm not grasping on paper. I kind of want to run tests, but I also kind of want to just watch it happen when it happens.

On paper though, I think I can take my first match. Four armored units could cause a bit of trouble. Although I see one Paladin that's a walking target at 70/70 with a Cross Helmet and a Light Robe, notably with innate Regen and Move-HP Up to balance it. I'm seeing quite a bit of tanking, but not a great deal of offense. The Poison Bows could draw some of my units off-task for status healing. It looks like it's going to be a lengthy match and my team is usually at their best in long matches. Cheer Song, Battle Song, and PA/MA Save could be troublesome. I worry most about Cheer Song. I don't see MA Save doing much for the Bard and Paladin, as the strength of their skills isn't MA-based. The PA Save armored Crossbow units will surely cause the most trouble. Add Cheer Song and Battle Song to that, and you've got my team in a bit of trouble. Ultimately though, everyone's got mid-to-high Faith, making them easy prey for my Short Charged Holy and Blast Gun. The Bard will probably use Steal Heart more often than his songs, which could cause trouble, but is RNG dependent and up against Esuna and Stigma Magic. A long match tends to favor me with all four equipment breaks at 8 range, MP Healing, and a PA Save Lancer. The greatest threats to me are PA Save on the other side, and the success rate of Steal Heart, though with all Serpentarius, it's surely a 53% chance every time. For the most part, it will come down to the RNG (as always), but I'm optimistic about my chances in Round 1.

Wiz's team looks a bit more dangerous. They're very solid (reminiscent of Raven's Y U SO DERP, in some ways). With H Bag, Move-HP Up, Setiemson, Defense Up, Brigandine and 40/40 Fury/Faith all working in beautiful Harmony, plus Thief Hat for Speed. Insult and Kiyomori could do a bit of damage if the AI makes good use of them. For the Thieves, Auto-Potion, Unyielding, Black Costume, and 40/40 make a great combo. The Golden Hairpin is an interesting choice. I suppose they need the MP for Quickening, though it will be interesting to see if the AI priorities allow them to spam it or not; I've seen it go both ways. Them being the support units though, I don't think Quickening will see very heavy use, which makes the golden Hairpin unnecessarily squishy. Hidden Knife, Quickening, and an innate 10 speed compliment each other nicely. Hidden Knife also deals concentrated damage, so my evasion is neutralized. I'm not seeing a great deal of offensive power here. Although with 40/40, innate Shell/Defense Up, Unyielding, innate Regen, and Auto-Potion, they won't be taking much damage either. If they blind my Lancer and Berserk my mages, I'll be in trouble. Ultimately, if I make it to Round 2, I think it's going to be a long back and forth match.

Oh, I'm an arrogant bastard, aren't I? Perhaps I over-estimate my team's abilities.

At any rate, I'm super excited. Even if I get my ass kicked in 30 seconds, it'll still be a fun time.

"D'you know in 900 years of time and space, I've never met anyone who wasn't important before."
-The Doctor-
dacheat [Posts: 98] Logged
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  • [May 01, 2012, 06:34:48 PM]
Re: FFT Arena Season One Discussion Thread
« Reply #59 on: May 01, 2012, 06:34:48 PM »
My assessment: Everyone's team sucks except for mine. Total victory is assured. The only way that I'll even drop a game is if the AI screws me over. :P

/totally serious analysis
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