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Arena Season 2 Predictions Thread

Started by reinoe, July 06, 2013, 06:45:07 am

reinoe

July 06, 2013, 06:45:07 am Last Edit: July 07, 2013, 10:22:04 pm by reinoe
This is just a side even so that the Season 2 thread doesn't get too cluttered.  Oh but you can't vote for yourself.

Throw your vote out there even if you're not participating in this tourney!  Although you only get one vote for overall winner and Loser's Bracket champ, you can change your vote.  Here are the two questions...

Who will win the tournament overall?

Who will win the Loser's Bracket to face the undefeated champion?

Commence!

Who will win the tournament overall?
My vote goes to Dokurider.

He's built a team full of distractions and one Unit Slow Dances the night away.  Eventually he'll overwhelm his opponents.

Who will win the Loser's Bracket to face the undefeated champion?
Barren.  I think he'll go to the loser's bracket after I defeat him and then he'll prove to be a nearly unstoppable juggernaut just like last time.  Then he'll face Dokurider and lose in a great match.

The person(s) who makes the prediction for the winners bracket will receive accolades!  I'll keep updating this post until the end of round 1 of the winner's bracket!

Votes so far!
Overall Winner!
Dokurider

Loser's Bracket Champ!
Barren
My dreams can come true!

Barren

So its me vs dokurider in the championship match you think will happen? That would be a dream match but somehow I doubt it. My team isn't as damage proficient as my previous one. Its more luck based but who knows
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Avalanche

July 08, 2013, 11:02:52 am #3 Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 02:40:58 pm by Avalanche
(D) and (AL) clearly reveals you lack of prediction skills.

i hope

Eternal

What, none of you all are rooting for Hastily Prepared Geomancy Team winning? I'm disappointed. :(
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"You, no less human than we? Ha! Now there's a beastly thought. You've been less than we from the moment your baseborn father fell upon your mother in whatever gutter saw you sired! You've been chattel since you came into the world drenched in common blood!"
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Gaignun

All wrong.  The Damned is going to come in both first and second.

The Damned

(I personally put my bets on either Dokurider, Wiz or Shadowbladestrike winning the tournament, though I think a bunch of other people will do alright.)

That said, Gaignun is the most correct of everyone so far, from a certain point of view, for reasons that should be obvious.

I will be the first host to lose and the second person to probably getting eliminated from the tournament as a whole after EmmaNigma loses to woodenbandman again.

Hurray.



Quote from: Eternal on July 08, 2013, 11:19:41 pm
What, none of you all are rooting for Hastily Prepared Geomancy Team winning? I'm disappointed. :(


It's because we all would have liked to have seen Spell Absorb on that Paladin instead of Blind since he's going to run out of MP otherwise. We're disappointed. :|
"Sorrow cannot be abolished. It is meaningless to try." - FFX's Yunalesca

"Good and evil are relative, but being a dick cannot be allowed." - Oglaf's Thaumaturge in "The Abyss"

"Well, see, the real magic isn't believing in yourself. The real magic is manipulating people by telling them to believe in themselves. The more you believe, the less you check facts."  - Oglaf's Vanka in "Conviction"

reinoe

July 13, 2013, 05:25:00 pm #7 Last Edit: July 13, 2013, 06:04:16 pm by reinoe
Well my bracket went to hell in a handbasket in a spectacular fashion.  Time to look at this predictions thread in a different way...

Loser's Bracket prelims...


Garland's Team

Garland's team suffers from being a bit unfocused.  There are some questionable choices thorughout.  I can't really figure out what Garland was going for as a team.

Lich:  Ok, white magic with no curative spells?  Ok, whatever works for you.  Black magic but no Frog?  And Prismatic Rod but no water.  Really unfortunate.  And then there's the equips.  Why have Equip Armor when you're pulling from Oracle?  Use Defense UP and save the jp.  Equip Armor has a major jp hit and if you're going to do that make it work by getting a helmet and body armor.

Kary:  Another White Magic user with not curative spells.  Alrighty then.  I can understand the Golden Hairpin+Robe of Lords for nearly unlimited MP if it were being used with Move MP UP.  But that's not happening.  Magic Attack UP ensures that holy is going to kill someone.  Golden Hairpin is a little redundant with 108GEMS.  I don't begrudge the Elemental secondary and it's great with 108 gems but it makes Golden Hairpin unnecessary.

Kraken:  This may very well be the most solid unit.  No Death Sentence and no Repeating Fist means that he has no way of pushing through the defense of turtling defense units with high evasion.  Othrwise not a bad unit.  Ninja+Martial arts is a combination I haven't seen in a while.

Tiamat: So moogle will be the only healing?  And Masamune to be recurring healing?  All units have revival so there's that.  Lich is a summon of questionable quality though.
====================================================

JamesOnyx's Team

J.O's team has an element absorb theme going on but it doesn't pack a strong enough punch and doesn't quite have enough synergy.

Amara:  Scholar+Distribute is fine, but always keep in mind that a unit cannot trigger it's own reactions.  Magic Attack UP+Quake is an excellent choice.  MAU+Scholar is always a good combination.  Prismatic Rod would bave been a better choice because of the higher MA.  This would have freed up the Clothing slot.  Don't Act is always a good choice from Yin Yang Magic since Silence is not always relevant.

Sigrund: The problem with Samurai is that they mix magic+physical.  I'm thinking Cross Helmet would have been a better choice.  During the prelims, Her "water" spell was doing impressive damage.  Ironically she's weilding "Diamond Armlet", something that protects against the slow that she can potentially inflict on her teammates.

Doug: Giant Axe is another great choice for a Geomancer.  Unfortunately not all the Elemental abilities were selected.  That's too bad.  Earth Slash is a choice that doesn't synergize well with Elemental though.

Ariel: This unit is in dire need of Quake.  Remove Holy and equip Dia.  Because the A.I. is going to waste time casting Holy on itself to heal when it could be casting Quake to heal himself and his teammates and hurting an enemy unit.

Results:Garland wins.  It's going to be a tough matchup but J.O. needed to ensure he has both water absorb and earth absorb on all his units.  If J.O. were using Quake more aggressively then I'd switch it around. :v/:


woodenbandman's team

kahlan: Steal Heart is and interesting and prudent choice.  I like "Flee" when it's applied strategically, and here it's not.  This unit is in Dire need of regen.  Equip Armor is used in a good but not great context.  Kahlan is still a spellcaster and therefore needs to be protected from Silence and berserk.  That's not being done here despite the status protections available.

Beatrix: Two Hands Oracles are always fun so there's that.  An atypical support oracle.  Support oracles usually go for White Magic.  This unit is in dire need of more status protection items.  Furthermore because of Two Hands+Ivory Rod, this unit may favor attacking over healing.

Trinity: Half MP+Move MP UP means extensive spellcasting during long matches.  Another Golden Hairpin+Robe Of Lords means tons of magic.  No silence protection could be very bad for this unit considering how reliant she is on magical spells.

Artemis:  This is T/J's strongest unit and will have to carry T.J.'s team to victory.
==============================================
woodenbandman's team doesn't have an overarching them either.  Namewise he's going with hobos...

Ramblin Rob: A competently built team from start to finish.  I hope that doesn't sound condescending but it's true.  This unit was built in a way that makes sense.  Being put in the "Unit 1" slot means that this guy can heal and then allow the healed unit to move.

Screamin' Larry:  Massive movement but to what end?  He's going to charge to the front lines and then do what?  Charm?  This type of setup would work much better with Talk Skill.  Furthermore Yell is looking increasingly like a terrible skill.  With the amount of movement he has, he's not going to be able to use Accumulate to build up his strength and it's going to clash with Yell too.  Lacks synergy but not too badly.

Stoner Steve: Not necessarily a bad unit, but you don't need Comet if you've got all those summons and you don't need stop because that spell is actually quite bad.  I'd go with Shiva and Ramuh and ditch Ifrit.  Utilize good compats so that low faith unit cans still be affected by Haste.

Gloryholetta: An interesting unit.  Fragile as hell, but thanks to Earth Slash or Wiznaibus she can approach from a distance.

Winner: TheJonin on the strength of Artemis one shotting the enemy, but w.b.m has more team synergy.   :v/:

I was going to go into a similar analysis as the other teams, but this match is rather predictable.  Emma just didn't have enough time to test. 

Andante49 just because.  :v/:
My dreams can come true!

Malroth

Dokurider has a pretty good team thats almost certain to win the second (large map) round against mine and would require my units play smart to win in rounds 1 or 3  (small or medium maps).  I do have the capability of putting down cursed ring units fairly well but don't have a permanent counter against Balancer besides simply outspeeding her And I have no MP depletion and the only iron boots counters i'm packing are greased bolt or Demi2  so the Dancing paladin is going to be around for quite a while. 

Avalanche

July 27, 2013, 05:11:55 am #9 Last Edit: July 28, 2013, 07:28:35 am by Avalanche
My Prediction for Semi-finals:

Beside what Ct5 mentions
QuoteI'll need to get lucky. You can tank my Thief and Ninja, Hidden Knife beats my Thief's evasion, Repel Knife adding Don't Act will hurt. Not to mention your Dancer can Refute away Death Sentence. I should be the one afraid, I think.
I think its gonna be very hard for my "hidden squad". for two reasons 1. This Team relies very much on lucky status procs like dont act, sleep or petrify. This Strategy is a two edged sword, because without those procs i get outdamaged very soon. Luckely noone in Ct5 Holy´s Team is immun to dont act. So i guess one lucky proc can  turn the tide to my favor. ON the other hand Ct5holy has the speed advantage with 44 against 37 and with stigma magic and esuna he can get a rid of statuses easy. And one unit with Refute is no real answear to the thread of death sentence, due to its low hit rate (50% neutral compat i guess) plus the dancer will probably waste all her turns refuting innocence anyway (which is the second reason).

So i think it could go either way. But because i am biased i say my Team wins xD. Because his two offensive units are to squishy.


I was suprised Reinoe win against Gaignung, which was one of my favorits this season. but i think, as strong as all of Reinores Units are Barren has the better Team. So i say Barren wins.

reinoe

Sigh, I had a long drawn out post for the loser's bracket, but the forum ate it.

Reks wins because that team is awesome and is in the loser's bracket before his time.

Ahong wins because his concentrate Archer is badass.

Torgo and DomieV win because they're up against opponents who didn't have a chance to build cohesive and complete teams.
My dreams can come true!

Malroth


Dol's team hits harder but has shorter range, fewer HP, Less status offense, Is slower and is has less reliable resurection,  he will out damage me but his attackers are fragile glass cannons.  He'll be facing an uphill fight but not an unwinnable one.

reinoe

There's no way I'm winning against Avalanche.  He's got too many incidental status proc's via his two swords.  And none of my units are immune to any of them.  As for other matches...

Dragonblade defeats James onyx.  Countermagic proves to be a game changer because J.O. doesn't absorb all the elements he's flinging around.

Malroth defeats Dol.  Dol has Battle Song but too many units that rely on two traits to be effective.

iamBQB WINS againd TheDamned

Truelight defeats the frisky dingo.  It's going to be a great match.  But there are some decisions on the team that are detrimental.

Jumza gets crushed by Reks.  The Reks can defeat any team in the tournament barring major electricy block/absorb.

Otabo losses to Ahong.  Another very close match.  Ahong is just a hair above.

Wiz wins against Torgo

LightningHax cannot overcome Fanatic.  Fanatic just hits too hard and is able to pull off the victory.
My dreams can come true!

Avalanche

QuoteThere's no way I'm winning against Avalanche.  He's got too many incidental status proc's via his two swords.  And none of my units are immune to any of them.  As for other matches...


But you have 3 Units who can cancel status. in case of Repel knife procs after a bandage/stigma magic you unit will remain hasted, so its not even a wasted turn. Offensivewise you Team will outdamage my Team, especialy the Draw-out-bard can, if he lands a multipanel Spell, defeat my Team in one turn and on the other side can turn the tide of a battle with one muramasa, helping to switch from a defensive position into a offensive one.
Nevertheless My Team can be very dangerous and may force yours into a Positions where you cant recover from. So all in all i say it depends on luck who wins.
When forced to give  a tip i would choose my Team because i like it more.

reinoe

So as the tourney winds down I figured I'd make a post regarding my expectations vs what actually happened.

My surprises...

#1 Reks' early elimination.
Anyone who's watched videos of his team can see that his team's performance is always formidable.  I expected him to go much further.

#2 Newcomers didn't go as far as I would have expected.
Oftentimes with these sorts of things there's a lurker out there who's a pro and just doesn't have many posts.  This time all the "new" players were eliminated rather quickly.  As an extension of that...Nobody who lost in Round 1, made it past round 2 of the loser's bracket.  Usually there's a Round 1 of the titans where two experience players just duke it out, and then the defeated player rips through the loser's bracket.  That didn't happen this time around.

#3 My own performance.
By some miracle I actually made it to the finals of the loser's bracket (see match "AD" for what I'm talking about in particular) 9/10 I lose that match and I'm sure I would have been defeated by Wiz afterwards.  Yeah I predicted that I'd go far initially, but that was mostly a tongue n' cheek bravado.  I didn't expect it in real life.

Honorable mention: the Wiz vs Angelus match.
Not only did I expect Wiz to go further before entering loser's bracket.  But the much bigger story is that both Shieldrender and Bow Gun were proven to be usable strategies to bring the pain.

Honorable mention #2: Dokurider's early elimination
I know I wasn't the only one surprised at this.

Honorable mention #3 What was, and what wasn't pervasive...
Magic Gun tech was not as widespread and abusive as I would have thought...TWO HANDS Katar Thieves was EVERYWHERE!!!!  The person sitting at the end: Avalanche who is using neither Magic Guns or T.H.K.T. Also, not a single Mime.  That's pretty surprising, but I guess they've worn out their welcome.
My dreams can come true!

Barren

I know for me I probably would have won if I switched around my units a little bit and changed some of their gears to further increases my chances of surviving and hitting talk skill. Still though, it did good where it could have made the top 5 tourney performances this season; though I did way better last season.

As for the rest of the tournament I'm cheering for TrueLight because this is someone whose going from falling early or mid way through tournaments to already in the finals of the loser's bracket. (Sorry reinoe but TrueLight I feel is the ultimate underdog that can overcome the odds)
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You dare cross blades with me?

formerdeathcorps

October 08, 2013, 12:02:59 pm #16 Last Edit: October 08, 2013, 01:22:12 pm by formerdeathcorps
1) The general trend, I believe, was that the teams who tried too hard to specifically block spellguns (Barren, Gaignun) lost to teams that did not really consider it the biggest concern (CT5Holy, reinoe, Truelight, Avalanche).  However, the teams out of the latter group who pursued the most flexible strategy are the ones still alive today.
2) Shadowstrike's loss to Avalanche (and the lack of spellguns in S7) should have surprised no one.  Such teams face white robe, setiemson, flash hat, projectile guard, and MADEF as counters and oil only overrides the effect of the white robe.  As with all gun-based teams, the lack of AoE forces the gunners to rely on speed (hasted 10+ SP units) to overpower sandbag loops, but all of the teams mentioned above are just as fast.  Those with explicit counters on at least two units have no way of losing (Avalanche, Barren, reinoe, Gaignun), while those with less defenses (CT5Holy and Truelight) probably would have an even match.
3) Doku losing is not so big a shock, though losing to Malroth is.  Fulcrum is too slow and is too vulnerable to any marginal trick like seal evil, cover fire, steal accessory, weapon break, etc.
4) Wiz learned nothing from last season and rightfully lost to Gaignun (again).  Correct me if I'm wrong, Gaignun, but isn't the same weakness that did him in last season (no defense against AoE chiri or koutetsu) what killed him this time as well, by the same margin as last?  IN general, Wiz, having been away for so long, did not realize that the metagame had shifted to lessen the threat of berserk; with 2H katar thief, spellgunner + pilgrimmage, and both reflect ring and defense ring blocking it, berserk + kiyomori gives opponent teams, especially cursed ring teams, way too much time for quickening to even be a factor.
5) In terms of the top three heavy damage teams, I think Avalanche has a better team than Gaignun, who should have beat reinoe.
6) Out of the remaining more status / evasion oriented teams (CT5Holy, Barren, TrueLight), Barren is the only one who doesn't have synchronization problems but his team is the weakest out of the three because he has only two attackers (who are relatively easy to kill) and is often forced to out-stall (until his thief revives to beat) heavier damage teams.  Anything that interweaves evasion and transparent into that damage, or is faster than his team, or has flash hats will simply cut him short.
7) CT5Holy is better built for stalling but a synchronization error on his thief (having Secret Fist on a melee attacker) + having an oracle blocked by reflect and flash hat causes the AI to mostly use status offense; any offense with magic / transparent / concentrate (but especially one that can mix damage with status like Avalanche's) or an offense boosted by Br / Fa accumulation will give him trouble.
8) Truelight probably has the most balanced team of the three.  He only has 2.5 damage dealers because the lancer is distracted by masamune spam (especially if the other team has slow2), but Truelight also has the tanking on his Priest and Ninja to boost his long-term effects in Warpath and Paralyze (while most of his damage is physical and bypasses evasion, essentially increasing the sunk cost of anti-magic and evasion counters).  Out of the three, Truelight has the best chance of beating Avalanche because his lancer with masamune becomes an advantage as he can get second turn jumps against Avalanche's unhasted units.


TrueLight loses to Reinoe
Reinoe loses to Avalanche
The destruction of the will is the rape of the mind.
The dogmas of every era are nothing but the fantasies of those in power; their dreams are our waking nightmares.

reinoe

A review of the teams shows that they both have built in DEFENSE UP/PROTECT on their units.  Clever.  Except for for Truelight's Priest.  Speaking of his priest I'd have a lot more faith in T.L. if he had some sort of A.o.E. like Draw Out or Summon.  Avalance's low faith provides him with protection from Spells.  Because of that I'm declaring...

Avalanche wins
My dreams can come true!